Value at Risk
1. Compute the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a six-month forward contract. The transaction requires the investor to deliver $12.7 million in 180 days and receive €10 million in exchange. Assume that the current spot rate is $1.26/1€ and the annualized interest rate is 4% on a six-month zero coupon bond and 3% on a six-month zero coupon Euro bond.
Again, assume the variance/co-variance matrix (on daily returns) across those
instruments are as follows:
| Six-Month $ Bond | Six-Month $ Bond | Six-Month $ Bond |
Six-Month $ Bond | 0.0000314 |
|
|
Six-Month € Bond | 0.0000043 | 0.0000260 |
|
Spot $/€ Rates | 0.0000012 | 0.0000013 | 0.0000032 |
(a) Compute the value of the short position in the zero coupon dollar bond.
(b) Compute the value of the long position in the zero coupon euro bond (in $ terms),holding spot rate fixed.
(c) Compute the VaR for this forward Contract.
(d) Compute the daily VaR for this forward contract assuming returns are normally distributed with a 90% confidential interval.